An Analysis of the Utah Primary Election 2008

One month ago Utah experienced several monumental upsets in Primary Elections. In this election a 6 term Congressman, 3 County Commissioners, 2 Legislators, and a State Treasurer candidate supported by pretty much every heavy weight in the Republican Party lost. The question has to be why? Many are trying to claim reasons for each individual race. This is true to a certain extent, but they miss the greater overarching facts in the results. There are too many similarities between the loses for us to not see at least some reasons that are universal.

Some of similarities are:

• The Republican voters were not interested in getting out and voting.
• Those who did come out had a clear anti-establishment even anti-party bent (only slightly larger numerically then 2 years ago).
• In most races the public went against the votes of the Delegates (3rd Congressional District being the exception).

Why is this happening? My research has pointed me to the following points:

• Republicans are not excited about John McCain, and this frustration with the nominee is pushing Republicans away.
• Voters overall are tired of the way our country is being led.
• Voters want something done to fix the Economy/Gas Prices and they feel nothing is being done.
• Because of this feeling of nothing being done they are starting to lash out at the Establishment (i.e. Republican Incumbents).
  

What other factors are at play?

• We see in-fighting within the Party that damages the Party.
• Democrats are extremely excited (especially in Utah) that Barrack Obama is their National Nominee.
• Democrats are raising enough money to be at play in the elections.
• Democrats have also recruited several well known and well respected candidates (Including in Utah County).
  

What does this mean in Utah?

• First the Republican Party is in trouble, their supporters are mad.
• Those who are getting out and voting want to change the system.
• They don’t want to support those who have been in charge because they feel like those in charge haven’t done enough.
• This means several races are now open to the Democratic Party that weren’t previously.
• We could see low Republican turnout meet high excited Democratic turnout equaling incumbent loses.
  

Caveats:

• If John McCain picks Mitt Romney as his running mate Republicans in Utah will get out and be excited.
• Several local issues can create problems. (I use for example the democratic candidate whose Fiancé was indicted for running a Prostitution ring)
  

What should we do?

• We need to (as a Party if possible) advocate our goals, not just define our principles.
• We need to understand the dynamics and not take for granted the opportunities for losses.
• We must figure out how to bring our Party back together.
• The Party needs to right itself.